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Thursday, November 30, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
NASA JPL latest news release
Take the Driver's Seat on Sea Level Science

A new NASA sea level simulator lets you bury Alaska's Columbia glacier in snow, and, year by year, watch how it responds. Or you can melt the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and trace rising seas as they inundate the Florida coast.

Computer models are critical tools for understanding the future of a changing planet, including melting ice, rising seas and shifting precipitation patterns. But typically, these mathematical representations -- long chains of computer code giving rise to images of dynamic change -- are accessible mainly to scientists.

› DOWNLOAD VIDEO DIY Glacier Modeling with NASA's Virtual Earth System Laboratory

The new simulator, however, allows anyone with a computer to perform idealized experiments with sea level and learn about its complexities. Developed by scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, the interactive platform, called the Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), provides the public with a taste of how NASA models important Earth processes.

The platform will also prove useful to scientists as a convenient way to create visual representations of data.

While many interface tools are available to explore sea level effects, VESL stands apart for its strong representation of Earth's cryosphere - the melting ice caps, ice sheets and glaciers that are major contributors to sea level rise.

And the simulator is not just a simplified version of a model or a menu of preexisting results. It is direct access to the complex, number-crunching model itself, though with limited scenarios and factors that can be adjusted.

"It's the real software, being used on the fly, live, without being prerecorded or precomputed," said Eric Larour of JPL, who led VESL's development. "You have access to a segment of an ice sheet model or sea level model, running NASA's software."

Despite these capabilities, VESL won't overtax computers.

"A key to making the interface tool work is cloud computing," Larour said. Instead of burdening your own computer with heavy demand, "you can access a JPL cloud to run big simulations."

The VESL platform allows the user to control one or two parameters for each model scenario. For example, in a version of the model configured to represent Columbia Glacier, a slider allows users to change snowfall amounts and examine how the change affects the glacier's behavior in subsequent years. For a sea level simulation, sliders control the rates at which the ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland are melting.

"You can explore different aspects of the model that maybe even the scientists didn't explore," Larour said.

The site will be updated frequently to keep up with the latest, peer-reviewed research. Scientists will eventually be able to use the graphical interface to display and present new data sets or model results, while lay users will be able to replicate published research results for themselves using models that are "open source," or publicly available.

"As we make progress, [the public] can rerun the science that we actually do," Larour said. "If anybody has concerns or finds issues with our simulation, they have the ability to replicate our results. We would welcome feedback and inputs to improve our science."

VESL was developed over five years by members of the Ice Sheet System Model development team at JPL and the University of California, Irvine (UCI), with the help of several students, including Dan Cheng from UCI and Gilberto Perez, who attended both Cal Poly Pomona and UCI.

The website hosting the simulator will also include a public outreach section, being developed by Daria Halkides, a scientist and outreach exhibit developer of Earth & Space Research in Seattle and a JPL affiliate.

"VESL was initially intended for scientists," Larour said. "Then we realized it could also be an excellent tool for public outreach. These simulations are so easy to run, and visually so compelling, that any person from the public can go and run them and probably understand what is going on."

You can find VESL at:

https://vesl.jpl.nasa.gov/

A paper describing the development of the ice sheet simulator, titled "A JavaScript API for the Ice Sheet System Model: Towards on online interactive model for the Cryosphere Community," appears today in the journal Geoscientific Model Development.

 

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NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Wednesday, November 29, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
Exoplanet Has Smothering Stratosphere Without Water
The massive exoplanet WASP-18b seems to have a smothering stratosphere loaded with carbon monoxide and devoid of water.
› Read the full story

 

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Tuesday, November 28, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
NASA Finds VA Metro Area Is Sinking Unevenly
The Hampton Roads metropolitan area is sinking at highly uneven rates, with a few spots subsiding 7 to 10 times faster than the area average.
› Read the full story
NASA Builds its Next Mars Rover Mission
The 2020 mission's hardware is coming together at JPL.
› Read the full story

 

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Sunday, November 26, 2017

Jawatan Kosong (RM2,500) Guru Tuisyen Math, BM, Eng @ Nibong Tebal Penang/ Lahat iPoh Perak


Kami mencari guru tuisyen untuk mengajar dirumah pelajar di  :
- Bahasa melayu ( standard 4 and standard 2) @ Residensi Merbok Nibong Tebal
- English dan matematik pra sekolah @ Lahat Ipoh Perak

Maklumat lanjut disini  >> http://www.1hometuisyen.blogspot.com/p/kadar-bayaran-tuisyen-di-rumah.html 


*Sila share ini dgn rakan facebook anda

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 http://majalah30.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_17.html

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Friday, November 24, 2017

hello

Hello chantybanty1.chanti, my name is Anna and i'm from Russia. Currently I live in US.
I saw your profile on Facebook and went on doing my things, but it turned out very strange.
Your face looking at me was in my head all the time
You are super cute and handsome and I would like to know you more!

If you feel the same, email me, this is my email annaingjl4@rambler.ru and I will send some of my photos.

Hugs,
Anna

Thursday, November 23, 2017

hi

Hi chantybanty1.chanti, my name is Elisabet and i'm from Russia
Many times in life, we can end up taking the people who are closest to our hearts for granted.
I am so used to all of the wonderful things that guys have done for me, but when I saw your profile on Instagram, I got curious what you could do?
I am sure you are kind of man, who appreciates relationships and cherishes their partners.
Want to know more about me, email me via laurahil692@rambler.ru
Hugs from Russia,
Elisabet

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

hi

Hi chantybanty1.chanti, my name is Anastasia and i'm from Russia, but currently living in the USA.
Two weeks ago I found your profile on Badoo and must say I cant forget that face :-)
You are super cute and I would like to know you more!
If its mutual, email me, this is my email nelamo4ps@rambler.ru and I will send some of my photos.

Hugs,
Anastasia

hi

Dear chantybanty1.chanti,
Finally I have got a change to write to you.
My name is Yana, i'm from Russia and now i'm living in USA :-)
I saw you first time on Facebook or Instagram, I don't remember, but today seeing you again made me write to you:)
You look so sexy and at the same time very cute and smart, just like my type.
Maybe we can talk? If you would like to know more about me, please, email me.
My email is micrenate87@rambler.ru

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

hi

Dear chantybanty1.chanti,
Finally I have got a change to write to you.
My name is Irina, i'm from Russia and now i'm living in USA :-)
I saw you first time on Facebook or Instagram, I don't remember, but today seeing you again made me write to you:)
You look so sexy and at the same time very cute and smart, just like my type.
Maybe we can talk? If you would like to know more about me, please, email me.
My email is d8wwedith@rambler.ru

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
Cassini Image Mosaic: A Farewell to Saturn
A bevy of color images was assembled to produce the mission's final end-to-end look at the planet and its rings.
› Read the full story
Drone Race: Human Versus Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence could soon match the skills of professional drone pilots.
› Read the full story

 

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Pasadena, CA 91109

hi

hello there chantybanty1.chanti! How are you cutie?
My name is Valeria and i am from Russia.
Soon i'm going to US to study and i'm trying to find some good person like you.
I found your profile on popular dating site and now i want to talk to you :-)
If you are interested in my photos please email me to nikoldfnruth@rambler.ru

Regards, Valeria

Monday, November 20, 2017

hi

hello there chantybanty1.chanti! How are you cutie?
My name is Irina and i am from Russia.
Soon i'm going to US to study and i'm trying to find some good person like you.
I found your profile on popular dating site and now i want to talk to you :-)
If you are interested in my photos please email me to adr2kelke@rambler.ru

Regards, Irina

hi

Hi chantybanty1.chanti, my name Maria and i'm from Russia.
Now i'm living in the US.
A week ago I found your profile on Badoo or something like that :-)
I dont remember to be honest :-)
You are super cute!
Maybe we can chat? You want my photos?
Please email me to sofie95qwruth@rambler.ru

XoXoXo, Maria

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
Solar System's First Interstellar Visitor Dazzles Scientists
New data reveal first detected interstellar object to be a rocky, and up to one-quarter mile (400 meters) long and highly-elongated-perhaps 10 times as long as it is wide.
› Read the full story
Recurring Martian Streaks: Flowing Sand, Not Water?
Seasonal dark streaks on Mars that previously were described as possible signs of flowing water have steep slopes that are better matches to dry flow processes.
› Read the full story
NASA Links Port-City Sea Levels to Regional Ice Melt
A new NASA tool that links changes in sea level in 293 global port cities to specific regions of melting land ice may help coastal planners prepare for future rising seas.
› Read the full story

 

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Friday, November 17, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
NASA JPL latest news release
New NASA Insights into the Secret Lives of Plants

Life. It's the one thing that, so far, makes Earth unique among the thousands of other planets we've discovered. Since the fall of 1997, NASA satellites have continuously and globally observed all plant life at the surface of the land and ocean. During the week of Nov. 13-17, NASA is sharing stories and videos about how this view of life from space is furthering knowledge of our home planet and the search for life on other worlds.

From rainforests to croplands, boreal forests to mangroves, NASA will take a new look at terrestrial vegetation across our living planet over the next two years with several unique instruments in space, including one from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The missions will help scientists investigate the role of plants in Earth's global carbon and water cycles.

Since the 1970s, NASA has studied life from space with satellites such as Landsat, Terra, Aqua and NASA/NOAA's Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership. Scientists have used these data along with observations from international spacecraft to conduct a wide range of research, from detecting northward expansion of forests in the Arctic to monitoring how burned areas recover from wildfires.

Generally, the instruments currently in orbit do their work by detecting sunlight reflected off Earth's surface, as a camera does. But the new instruments being launched over the next two years will take a new, more active approach to probe new questions about vegetation and how it is changing. Two of these NASA missions will use laser instruments that will measure the height of trees, while a third will monitor temperature to provide insights into plant health.

Laser measurements of trees

While the global extent of forest ecosystems has been mapped from satellite imagery, existing maps can't determine how tall those trees are, or the structure of their canopies -- that is, the third dimension.

Two missions will use spaceborne lasers to measure tree height: an instrument mounted on the International Space Station, called the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI); and a satellite called the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2), which will focus on measuring snow and ice, but will also measure the planet's forests. With data flowing in from both instruments, scientists plan to develop a three-dimensional map of Earth's vegetation.

By knowing the extent of forests from existing maps, as well as the heights of the canopy from the new instruments, researchers will then be able to estimate how much plant matter -- and therefore how much carbon -- is present. As trees grow, they absorb carbon from the atmosphere, making forests a key player in the global carbon cycle. Over time, these missions can help give scientists clues to how much carbon is being absorbed by growing forests, and how it's being released into the atmosphere through forest fires and deforestation.

"Combining ICESat-2 with GEDI, we're going to have a new view of the state of the biosphere on our planet," said Tom Neumann, the deputy project scientist for the ICESat-2 project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

For Ralph Dubayah, GEDI's principal investigator from the University of Maryland, the GEDI mission will answer questions about the biomass of trees in a given region, and the impact of deforestation and reforestation on the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. GEDI will also quantify how the vertical arrangement of leaves and branches in a forest affects habitat quality and biodiversity.

While both missions use light detection and ranging (lidar) technology -- which is like radar, but with laser light instead of radio waves -- the GEDI instrument will use a near-infrared wavelength. This wavelength region is optimal to measure vegetation because it reflects off of leaves, and a portion of this reflected light makes its way back to the sensor. The pulses emitted from near-infrared lasers can also better penetrate through tree canopies to reflect off the ground, which is a necessary measurement for determining the height of trees.

GEDI's team has worked to optimize its system's pulse width, wavelength, sampling pattern and footprint size to cover as many forested areas as possible. GEDI's three lasers will pulse 242 times per second, sampling 10 laser tracks spread out across a 3.7-mile (6-kilometer) swath on Earth's surface. Because GEDI will fly on the International Space Station, its orbital path will focus on Earth's mid-latitude and tropical regions, where the vast majority of forest carbon is stored.

ICESat-2, orbiting pole-to-pole, will gather data on Earth's ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers with its near-global coverage. Instead of using near-infrared light, ICESat-2's Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) instrument will use green, visible light. ATLAS has two lasers, only one of which operates at a time. The non-operating laser is an onboard spare. The operating laser will pulse 10,000 times per second and generate six tracks. As it travels over the mid-latitudes, scientists will use ATLAS to measure specific vegetated regions, complementing the GEDI measurements and creating a more complete three-dimensional map of Earth's vegetation.

The photons, or particles of light, from ICESat-2's green lasers will reflect off whatevertha is below them, including the tops of trees, branches and leaves, and -- if there is open space in the canopy -- off the ground.

"If you can separate those two -- the photons reflected from the ground, from the photons reflected from the tops of the trees -- you can measure tree height, which is really cool," Neumann said. However, it's not always possible to separate the treetops from the forest floor, especially with a visible wavelength.

"If the tree canopy is too dense, we cannot see the ground, so you can't measure tree height," Neumann said. "If the tree canopy is too sparse, we can't see the trees because it's one tree in the middle of a field, and your chances of hitting that single tree are not so good."

Because GEDI's lasers operate in near-infrared, and have sufficient power to penetrate dense forests with each shot, the instrument can more accurately measure forest structure even in areas that have a dense canopy.

GEDI's vegetation measurements will help close a critical gap in our current understanding of how carbon is stored and emitted over time by forests and other ecosystems. The process plays a huge role, ultimately, in how much carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere.

"The central science goal of GEDI is to provide the data by which we can precisely address this question," Dubayah said. "GEDI is the first lidar ever to fly that has been optimized for vegetation measurements."

Armed with this information, scientists will be able to do a much better job forecasting atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the future, he said, and in understanding the role of human activities on the carbon cycle.

Clouds are another obstacle for both the ICESat-2 and GEDI missions. On any given day, Earth is about 50 percent covered in clouds. So, instead of measuring the tops of trees, these lidar-based systems will measure the tops of the clouds which reflect the laser pulse. Having two systems measuring vegetation will help fill in these cloudy data gaps. By combining the data, scientists will get a better picture of the status of Earth's vegetation.

Although the two missions are optimized for different scientific objectives, they will work together to create a more precise height map of Earth's vegetation -- a data set that can help answer Dubayah's questions.

Taking the temperature of plants

Knowing how much vegetation is present on Earth does not indicate whether or not that vegetation is healthy. How vegetation changes due to stresses caused by water availability is the key science question to be addressed by JPL's ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission.

As plants take in carbon dioxide for photosynthesis, they release water through evapotranspiration from their leaf pores, which helps them cool down in the hot sun, much as human sweat cools us down. And just like humans, if plants don't get enough water, they can overheat.

The plant pores open and shut in response to heat stress and water availability. When they're open, plants take in carbon dioxide and lose water. When they're closed, plants stop taking in carbon dioxide (i.e., growing) but also stop losing water. If we know plants are losing water, we know they're taking in carbon dioxide, and vice versa. ECOSTRESS data will help scientists understand the total carbon dioxide uptake by plants over the course of a typical day. For example, if it's a hot and dry afternoon, some plants may shut down their water use and carbon dioxide uptake in the afternoon. ECOSTRESS will be able to detect these types of responses. Current polar orbiting satellites can provide only a single snapshot of carbon dioxide uptake and water release each day, at the same time of day, so scientists have to estimate how that one-time snapshot translates over the course of the entire day.

ECOSTRESS will measure plant temperatures from space to detect the cooling nature of water evaporated by plants, or the lack thereof. It will tell us how much water different plants use and need and how they react to environmental stresses from water shortages. In addition to its carbon and water cycle science objectives, it will also study how Earth's terrestrial biosphere is responding to changes in water availability.

From its unique orbital perch, ECOSTRESS will observe the same spot on Earth every few days at different times of day for a minimum of one year, allowing scientists to track changes in plant-water dynamics over the course of a typical day.

"ECOSTRESS will enable a detailed investigation into plant water use throughout the day," said Josh Fisher, the mission's science lead at JPL. "Furthermore, we'll be able to better understand how certain regions are being impacted by drought. This could have important implications for managing forests or agricultural systems."

ECOSTRESS will also provide key insights into links between Earth's water and carbon cycles by identifying which areas of our planet require more or less water for the amount of carbon dioxide they take up.

ECOSTRESS Principal Investigator Simon Hook of JPL began developing the thermal infrared radiometer for ECOSTRESS several years ago. ECOSTRESS will track the energy used in evaporating water in combination with other factors that affect evaporation, such as temperature and humidity.

ECOSTRESS data will be used by ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists and other scientists as well as the agricultural and water management communities. In fact, the ECOSTRESS science team includes scientists from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It will collect data at pixels measuring a little more than 200 feet (70 meters) on a side, about the size of a large backyard, small farm or part of a big farm. This scale of information can also be useful for applications research on the effects of droughts on natural vegetation; for example, for identifying which types of trees are most vulnerable to dying first.

NASA and its partners are planning even more future missions over the next several years to advance what we know about Earth's ecosystems. For example, the agency is partnering with the Indian Space Research Organization to develop the NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission, which will routinely provide systematic observations of Earth's land and ice-covered surfaces at least twice every 12 days, enabling greater scientific understanding of the dynamic processes that drive the Earth system and natural hazards, as well as providing actionable support for disaster response and recovery.

NISAR will complement GEDI, ICESat-2 and ECOSTRESS. With its capability to see through clouds, it will be able to help measure the amount of carbon stored in forests, the loss of forests due to disturbance, and the extent of agricultural areas and wetland areas across the globe.

By Lacey Young
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

and Alan Buis
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.

 

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Pasadena, CA 91109

Thursday, November 16, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
Lava or Not, Exoplanet 55 Cancri e Likely to have Atmosphere
A super-Earth exoplanet thought to sport lava lakes on its hot side, 55 Cancri e, likely also wears an atmosphere with ingredients similar to Earth's, a new study indicates.
› Read the full story
NASA Survey Technique Estimates Congo Forest's Carbon
The equivalent of up to three-quarters of the carbon stored in contiguous U.S. forests is locked in the living vegetation of one African country, according to new research.
› Read the full story

 

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A Supermoon Teachable Moment from NASA/JPL Edu

NASA/JPL Edu Teachable Moment: What's a Supermoon and Just How Super Is It?
 

What's a Supermoon and Just How Super Is It?

The term "supermoon" has been popping up a lot in the news and on social media over the past few years. But what are supermoons, why do they occur and how can they be used as an educational tool? Plus, are they really that super?

December 3 marks the first of three supermoons in a row, making now a great time to learn about what causes these celestial events and get students exploring Earth's only natural satellite.

In the latest Teachable Moment blog from NASA/JPL Edu, education specialist Lyle Tavernier explains the dynamics behind supermoons and how to dispell common misconceptions among students and adults so they can fully enjoy one of the sky's most phenomenal sights.

Plus, two new related lessons get students making their own observations and using measurement and proportions to compare the size of a normal full moon to a supermoon.


Read the Blog

 

And check out these related lessons from NASA/JPL Edu

NASA/JPL Edu Lesson: Observing the Moon *NEW* Observing the Moon (Grades K-6) – Students identify the Moon's location in the sky and record their observations over the course of the Moon-phase cycle in a journal.
Read more
NASA/JPL Edu Lesson: Measuring the Supermoon *NEW* Measuring the Supermoon (Grades 5-12) – Students take measurements of the Moon during its full phases over multiple Moon cycles to compare and contrast results.
Read more
NASA/JPL Edu Lessons – Moon Phases Moon Phases (Grades 1-6) – Students learn about the phases of the Moon by acting them out. In 30 minutes, they will act out one complete Moon cycle.
Read more
NASA/JPL Edu Lessons – Whip Up a Moon-Like Crater Whip Up a Moon-Like Crater (Grades 1-6) – Whip up a Moon-like crater with baking ingredients as a demonstration for students.
Read more
NASA/JPL Edu Lesson – Modeling the Earth-Moon System Modeling the Earth-Moon System (Grades 6-8) – Using an assortment of playground and toy balls, students will measure diameter, calculate distance and scale, and build a model of the Earth-Moon system.
Read more

 

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Tuesday, November 14, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
NASA JPL latest news release
NASA's Mars 2020 Mission Performs First Supersonic Parachute Test

Landing on Mars is difficult and not always successful. Well-designed advance testing helps. An ambitious NASA Mars rover mission set to launch in 2020 will rely on a special parachute to slow the spacecraft down as it enters the Martian atmosphere at over 12,000 mph (5.4 kilometers per second). Preparations for this mission have provided, for the first time, dramatic video of the parachute opening at supersonic speed.

The Mars 2020 mission will seek signs of ancient Martian life by investigating evidence in place and by caching drilled samples of Martian rocks for potential future return to Earth. The mission's parachute-testing series, the Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiment, or ASPIRE, began with a rocket launch and upper-atmosphere flight last month from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Virginia.

› DOWNLOAD VIDEO NASA's Mars 2020 Supersonic Parachute: Test Flight #1

"It is quite a ride," said Ian Clark, the test's technical lead from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "The imagery of our first parachute inflation is almost as breathtaking to behold as it is scientifically significant. For the first time, we get to see what it would look like to be in a spacecraft hurtling towards the Red Planet, unfurling its parachute."

A 58-foot-tall (17.7-meter) Black Brant IX sounding rocket launched from Wallops on Oct. 4 for this evaluation of the ASPIRE payload performance. The payload is a bullet-nosed, cylindrical structure holding a supersonic parachute, the parachute's deployment mechanism, and the test's high-definition instrumentation -- including cameras -- to record data.

The rocket carried the payload as high as about 32 miles (51 kilometers). Forty-two seconds later, at an altitude of 26 miles (42 kilometers) and a velocity of 1.8 times the speed of sound, the test conditions were met and the Mars parachute successfully deployed. Thirty-five minutes after launch, ASPIRE splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean about 34 miles (54 kilometers) southeast of Wallops Island.

"Everything went according to plan or better than planned," said Clark. "We not only proved that we could get our payload to the correct altitude and velocity conditions to best mimic a parachute deployment in the Martian atmosphere, but as an added bonus, we got to see our parachute in action as well."

The parachute tested during this first flight was almost an exact copy of the parachute used to land NASA's Mars Science Laboratory successfully on the Red Planet in 2012. Future tests will evaluate the performance of a strengthened parachute that could also be used in future Mars missions. The Mars 2020 team will use data from these tests to finalize the design for its mission.

The next ASPIRE test is planned for February 2018.

The Mars 2020 project's parachute-testing series, ASPIRE, is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with support from NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, and NASA's Ames Research Center, Mountain View, California, for NASA's Space Science Mission Directorate. NASA's Sounding Rocket Program is based at the agency's Wallops Flight Facility. Orbital ATK provides mission planning, engineering services and field operations through the NASA Sounding Rocket Operations Contract. NASA's Heliophysics Division manages the sounding-rocket program for the agency.

 

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Monday, November 13, 2017

JPL News - Day in Review

 

DAY IN REVIEW
NASA JPL latest news release
Listening for Gravitational Waves Using Pulsars

One of the most spectacular achievements in physics so far this century has been the observation of gravitational waves, ripples in space-time that result from masses accelerating in space. So far, there have been five detections of gravitational waves, thanks to the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and, more recently, the European Virgo gravitational-wave detector. Using these facilities, scientists have been able to pin down the extremely subtle signals from relatively small black holes and, as of October, neutron stars.

But there are merging objects far larger whose gravitational wave signals have not yet been detected: supermassive black holes, more than 100 million times more massive than our Sun. Most large galaxies have a central supermassive black hole. When galaxies collide, their central black holes tend to spiral toward each other, releasing gravitational waves in their cosmic dance. Much as a large animal like a lion produces a deeper roar than a tiny mouse's squeak, merging supermassive black holes create lower-frequency gravitational waves than the relatively small black holes LIGO and similar ground-based experiments can detect.

"Observing low-frequency gravitational waves would be akin to being able to hear bass singers, not just sopranos," said Joseph Lazio, chief scientist for NASA's Deep Space Network, based at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, and co-author of a new study in Nature Astronomy.

To explore this uncharted area of gravitational wave science, researchers look not to human-made machines, but to a natural experiment in the sky called a pulsar timing array. Pulsars are dense remnants of dead stars that regularly emit beams of radio waves, which is why some call them "cosmic lighthouses." Because their rapid pulse of radio emission is so predictable, a large array of well-understood pulsars can be used to measure extremely subtle abnormalities, such as gravitational waves. The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), a Physics Frontier Center of the National Science Foundation, is one of the leading groups of researchers using pulsars to search for gravitational waves.

The new Nature Astronomy study concerns supermassive black hole binaries -- systems of two of these cosmic monsters. For the first time, researchers surveyed the local universe for galaxies likely to host these binaries, then predicted which black hole pairs are the likeliest to merge and be detected while doing so. The study also estimates how long it will take to detect one of these mergers.

"By expanding our pulsar timing array over the next 10 years or so, there is a high likelihood of detecting gravitational waves from at least one supermassive black hole binary," said Chiara Mingarelli, lead study author, who worked on this research as a Marie Curie postdoctoral fellow at Caltech and JPL, and is now at the Flatiron Institute in New York.

Mingarelli and colleagues used data from the 2 Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS), which surveyed the sky from 1997 to 2001, and galaxy merger rates from the Illustris simulation project, an endeavor to make large-scale cosmological simulations. In their sample of about 5,000 galaxies, scientists found that about 90 would have supermassive black holes most likely to merge with another black hole.

While LIGO and similar experiments detect objects in the final seconds before they merge, pulsar timing arrays are sensitive to gravitational wave signals from supermassive black holes that are spiraling toward each other and will not combine for millions of years. That's because galaxies merge hundreds of millions of years before the central black holes they host combine to make one giant supermassive black hole.

Researchers also found that while bigger galaxies have bigger black holes and produce stronger gravitational waves when they combine, these mergers also happen fast, shortening the time period for detection. For example, black holes merging in the large galaxy M87 would have a 4-million-year window of detection. By contrast, in the smaller Sombrero Galaxy, black holes mergers typically take about 160 million years, offering more opportunities for pulsar timing arrays to detect gravitational waves from them.

Black hole mergers generate gravitational waves because, as they orbit each other, their gravity distorts the fabric of space-time, sending ripples outward in all directions at the speed of light. These distortions actually shift the position of Earth and the pulsars ever so slightly, resulting in a characteristic and detectable signal from the array of celestial lighthouses.

"A difference between when the pulsar signals should arrive, and when they do arrive, can signal a gravitational wave,"Mingarelli said. "And since the pulsars we study are about 3,000 light-years away, they act as a galactic-scale gravitational-wave detector."

Because all supermassive black holes are so distant, gravitational waves, which travel at the speed of light, take a long time to arrive at Earth. This study looked at supermassive black holes within about 700 million light-years, meaning waves from a merger between any two of them would take up to that long to be detected here by scientists. By comparison, about 650 million years ago, algae flourished and spread rapidly in Earth's oceans -- an event important to the evolution of more complex life.

Many open questions remain about how galaxies merge and what will happen when the Milky Way approaches Andromeda, the nearby galaxy that will collide with ours in about 4 billion years.

"Detecting gravitational waves from billion-solar-mass black hole mergers will help unlock some of the most persistent puzzles in galaxy formation," said Leonidas Moustakas, a JPL research scientist who wrote an accompanying "News and Views" article in the journal.

2MASS was funded by NASA's Office of Space Science, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Naval Observatory and the University of Massachusetts. JPL managed the program for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington. Data was processed at IPAC at Caltech in Pasadena, California.

Updated on Nov. 13, 2017, at 10:45 a.m. to clarify history of algae.

 

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NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
4800 Oak Grove Dr
Pasadena, CA 91109